Is Optimism Always Best? Future Outlooks and Preparedness

Although people generally appear optimistic about the future, they shift from optimism under certain circumstances. Drawing from a recent review of the literature, we describe how both optimism and shifts from optimism serve the common goal of preparedness, which includes a readiness to deal with setbacks and a readiness to take advantage of opportunities. Shifts from optimism occur in response to available information and to the possibility that things may not turn out as hoped. People tend to shift from optimism when feedback is anticipated in the near future, when the outcome is important, when negative outcomes are easily imagined, and when the outcomes are uncontrollable. In addition, people with low self-esteem shift from optimism more readily than do people with high self-esteem. Finally, both optimism and shifts from optimism have unique benefits in terms of preparedness. KEYWORDS—optimism; pessimism; expectations; preparedness In general, people are optimistic about the future, and for good reason. An optimistic outlook appears to provide numerous benefits (Scheier & Carver, 1993). It is linked to greater persistence toward goals and to better coping and adjustment. Optimism facilitates health benefits including reduced levels of postpartum depression, better recovery from alcoholism, and bolstered cardiovascular and immune-system functioning (see Shepperd, Carroll, & Sweeny, in press, for a review). Furthermore, optimism carries social benefits, at least in Western cultures. In general, optimistic people are better liked than pessimistic people (Helweg-Larsen, Sadeghian, & Webb, 2002). Finally, it feels good to believe that the future will be bright; believing otherwise can lead to anxiety. Given the benefits of optimism, an optimistic outlook appears to be the status quo for most people in most instances. One might thus expect people to embrace optimism under all circumstances. However, mounting evidence suggests that people will shelve their optimism at the moment of truth in favor of a more realistic or even pessimistic outlook. For example, students in one study were pessimistic about their performance on an exam moments before receiving their grades (Shepperd, Ouellette, & Fernandez, 1996). Although past research generally overlooks the potential benefits of moving away from optimism at the moment of truth, we propose that optimism and shifts from optimism serve a similar goal: the need for preparedness (Carroll, Sweeny, & Shepperd, 2006). Importantly, our discussion of optimism is less concerned with whether predictions about the future are objectively optimistic relative to some external criterion, such as the population base rate, than in how predictions at one point in time compare with predictions at another point in time. For our purposes, optimism and pessimism refer to relative expectations about the future at a moment in time, not a dispositional tendency to view the future in a particular way. FUTURE OUTLOOKS AND THE NEED TO PREPARE We propose that a need for preparedness governs fluctuations in future outlooks (Carroll et al., 2006). Preparedness is a goal state of readiness to respond to uncertain outcomes. It includes being prepared for possible setbacks should they occur, but also being prepared to take advantage of opportunities when they arise. In most circumstances, optimism best serves the goal of preparedness by organizing thoughts and activity around goal pursuit and persistence and the acquisition of opportunities and resources. Optimism fosters a positive mindset to undertake challenges with the confidence that one can succeed. However, in other circumstances, a shift from optimism best serves the goal of preparedness by directing thoughts and actions toward assessing and responding to changes in the local environment. Of course, when danger has passed or worst-case scenarios become less dire, shifts toward optimism can also serve the need for preparedness by directing energy toward goal attainment. Finally, a pessimistic outlook can facilitate preparation for possible undesired outcomes. As the moment of truth draws near, Address correspondence to Kate Sweeny, Department of Psychology, PO Box 112250, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611-2250; e-mail: kdockery @ufl.edu. CURRENT DIRECTIONS IN PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE 302 Volume 15—Number 6 Copyright r 2006 Association for Psychological Science pessimism directs cognitions and activity toward avoiding undesired outcomes or minimizing their consequences. WHY DO PEOPLE SHIFT FROM OPTIMISM? Given the evidence suggesting that optimism is the status quo, what prompts people to depart from optimism? We suggest two broad reasons for departures from optimism, both of which serve the larger need of preparedness (Fig. 1; Carroll et al., 2006). The first is a response to information and the second is a response to the possibility that things might not turn out as hoped. It is noteworthy that these explanations are not mutually exclusive; people may shift from optimism for multiple reasons. Responding to Available Information Sometimes people depart from optimism in response to information bearing on the accuracy of their predictions. The information can take three forms (Carroll et al., 2006). First, sometimes people gain new information that prompts them to adjust their predictions to prepare for what lies ahead. As the moment of truth draws near, people often gain greater understanding of the circumstances that might influence their outcomes and, perhaps, a better a sense of what outcomes are realistic and what outcomes are not. Second, people sometimes revise their outlooks as a result of more careful consideration or scrutiny of existing information. The greater scrutiny may arise from increased accountability concerns, whereby people feel pressure (either internally or externally generated) to justify or defend their outlook, or from the fact that as events draw near, people shift the way they construe events. Whereas people construe distant events abstractly and focus more on what they would like to happen, they construe near events concretely and focus more on what is likely to happen (Trope & Liberman, 2003). Third, current mood can be a source of information. As events and outcomes draw near, people often experience an increase in anxiety and may draw inferences about themselves and their likely outcomes based on their current anxiety (Schwartz & Clore, 1988). To put these explanations in context, consider college students’ predictions about their starting salaries. College seniors in one study shifted their salary predictions in their first postgraduation job from optimism 4 months prior to graduation to realism 2 weeks prior to graduation. Sophomores and juniors, by contrast, showed no such shift in predictions (Shepperd et al., 1996). Undoubtedly, the seniors recalibrated their predictions in part due to gaining greater information about starting salaries either from their own interview experience or from the experiences of friends. Furthermore, as their senior year drew to a close, the seniors may have felt growing pressure to explain their overly optimistic salary expectations to themselves and others, and they may have focused more on the difficulties of the application and interview process and less on the dream of making millions. Finally, the seniors may have interpreted increasing anxiety about the job market as evidence that their original expectations were too high. Responding to the Possibility of an Undesired Outcome Not all shifts in outlook reflect a response to information. In some instances, a shift from optimism reflects a response to the possibility that things may not turn out as hoped. That is, people Why do people shift from optimism? When do people shift from optimism? Responding to information Acquiring new information Greater scrutiny of existing information Current mood states provide information Responding to the possibility of an undesired outcome Avoiding disappointment Mobilizing resources Magical thinking Proximal feedback Important or self-relevant outcomes Easily imagined negative outcomes Uncontrollable outcomes